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除了钩沉抉隐的口述史，除了不拘一格的叙史风格，唐德刚先生作为历史学家的成就，最为普通读者津津乐道的就是他的“转型”史观。然在专家型读者看来，这套史观，似又卑之无甚高论，不配享有高度赞誉。顷读网络所载纪念唐先生逝世的文章及访谈，如许纪霖，云：“很难说他（唐德刚）在史学研究上有多大的成就，但他在读书界的影响力超过其他公认的学院派史学家”（《东方早报》10月30日）。又如，吾友胡文辉，十分许可唐先生“生龙活虎”的文采，而对其“转型”说，则谓：“大抵不过西方现代化史观山寨版，亦不无黄仁宇大历史观的意味，其本人虽津津乐道，而理论思辨终非所长（《现代学林点将录》）”。
史观是否高明，容有轩轾，吾无辩焉；窃谓，唐先生在其著作中如何结合史实阐述其史观，读者通过其史观将获得对中国近代史的何种认识，是比争论其史观是否高明更重要也更有意思的话题。
请先介绍唐先生的“转型”史观。他说：“笔者对四千年国史之诠释，一以贯之，斯即数十年来初未离口之拙论，所谓‘三大阶段’与‘两次转型’也。愚意自夏禹家天下以後有纪录可征之国史，凡四千余年（公元前2200—公元2000），四千年中，如按我民族所特有之社会型态发展之程序（typological approach to societal development）而分析之，则四千年来我民族之社会政治型态之发展，盖可综合之为三大阶段，亦即封建、帝制与民治是也。从封建转帝制，发生于商鞅与秦皇汉武之间，历时约三百年。从帝制转民治则发生于鸦片战争之後，吾侪及身而见之中国近现代史之阶段也。笔者鄙见认为此一转型至少亦非二百年以上难见肤功也。换言之，我民族于近代中国所受之苦难，至少需至下一世纪之中期，方可略见松动。此不学所谓两大转型也”（《告别帝制五千年》）。按，自1840至1949年为中国近代史，此一分期业已获得共识——由中国社会科学院近代史研究所集体编撰的十卷本《中国近代通史》，不再对1840—1949的百馀年历史作任何分期，而统名为“中国近代史”。然在唐先生看来，“中国近代史”并非一个已告结束的时段，而只是整个“转型”期的前半截，因为，“帝制转民治”的历史转型至今犹未完成，而“整个转型期，大致需时两百年（1840—2040），姑名之为‘历史三峡’”；则是说，中华民族迄今仍在“历史三峡”中搏击风浪，革命尚未成功，同志仍需努力。此即唐先生的“转型”史观。
据此史观看待近代史，则凡诸鸦片战争、甲午战争、戊戌变法、辛亥革命、抗日战争、国共内战、抗美援朝、文化大革命、改革开放等大事件，不论成败，不论美恶，皆不过是“历史三峡中的一个阶段之完成，一个险滩之通过而已”。再据此史观看待当代史尤其是中华人民共和国的当代史，则“大陆上今日当权的人民政府的特性”表现为：“一，它是‘转型期’中最后一个有阶段性的政权；二，它具有中间性：前有帝王专制的遗传，後有民主政治的远景；三，极权政府和独裁领袖的权力递减，从绝对权威递减至依法治国；四，它具有其千载难逢的机运，来结束这场转型运动而驶出历史三峡”（《中国之惑》）。
而据此史观评论近代史上的大人物，最饶趣味。
唐先生说：“在‘近代中国’这座大舞台上表演出将入相的演员们，他们‘才’、‘德’和社会背景，基本上差别有限。只是一部‘中国近代史’，却是一部从‘中古’逐渐进入‘现代’的转型史。在这蜕变期中，则有极明显的‘阶段性’。表演後一阶段的演员就要比前一阶段的，更要‘现代化’。前一阶段的演员，如不把握时机教育自己，当时代进入次一阶段，你就要被时代所遗弃，变成新时代的‘革命对象’了”（《民国前十年》）。按，“把握时机教育自己”，唐先生以孙文为正面典型，谓当“二次革命”受挫，曾经“梦想的‘以美为师’，民主共和政体的实验，全盘失败”，孙文乃调换方向，“以俄为师”，“联俄容共”，终能保证国民党在历史三峡渡过险滩。反面典型则是袁世凯，当他“感觉共和政体不适用于中国，再经过与国民党一番痛苦的斗争之後，金窝、银窝，终不如狗窝，他老人家就要回头去做皇帝了”，终于在历史三峡折戟沉沙，身死犹为後人笑。按，孙、袁看似趋向各异，其实，皆欲以“独裁专制”挽回共和失败的局面——孙文创立“中华革命党”，明令党员对其个人效忠，显为“独裁专制”——只是，孙的表现较袁更为“现代化”，故能获得世人谅解。
在转型期“大舞台”表演最为精彩的“艺员”，则非“倒戈将军”冯玉祥莫属：“他从满清的管带，做到洪宪王朝的‘男爵’；再作直系军阀；又是倒直、排皖、反奉的一无所属的国民军总司令；受基督徒洗礼而受西方传教士支持的‘基督将军’；又做了受布尔什维克洗礼的‘北赤’；又做屠杀共党的国民党右派；再做受少数党支持的抗日同盟军总司令；又重作冯妇当了国民政府军事委员会副委员长；战後游美又作了资本主义的宣传员；中共政权登场，焕公（冯玉祥字焕章）又打算立刻回国投效，终至丧生黑海”（《政学系探源》）。这就是与时俱进的冯玉祥，其立身或有可议之处，但是，“我们却不能因此而忽视冯玉祥在民国史上所起的各种决定性作用”——此即“表演後一阶段的演员就要比前一阶段的，更要‘现代化’”的注脚。只有不断“革命”，方能避免成为“革命对象”；冯公，其知幾者神知时者圣之谓耶？
唐先生以此史观，贯彻于知人、论世、叙史，再以活泼风趣的笔墨描述之；普通读者看他的书，不仅获得阅读快感，犹能通过他的史观获得对近代史的宏观印象，因此，爱不释手，掩卷太息，不亦宜乎。再进一步说，普通读者固然很少具备整体把握历史的能力——其实，专家读者何尝不如此？——然在知晓一些史事之後，则又渴望了解这些史事的意义，甚而奢望以史为鉴，能够看到未来的趋势。其心可悯，其情可叹。于是，史书作者若不能提供简便法门，供其解读陈迹、展望未来，必令读者失望。不独史家如此，即使一个说书人，惊堂木一拍，不也会说一些诸如“天下大势，合久必分，分久必合”的“历史规律”？尽管他主要的任务不过是以讲古来娱乐大众，并不承担普及“正确”史观的责任。然自听众而言，若说书人不能讲一两句“天下大势”，终觉意犹未尽，心中不爽。等而观之，写给大众看的史书，其中包括的形形色色的史观，实在没有什么高下之别。关键在于，作者所叙之事能否以作者所创之史观进行圆满解释，倘能自圆其说，则为佳构，不能，则无人信从，将被自然淘汰。以此标准衡量，唐先生的著作，洵为佳构。
尤为特出的是，唐先生下笔，常能揉杂事实、评论与感慨，天然凑泊，浑然一体，引人入胜。聊举一例：民国十六（1927）年五月，奉军少帅张学良与北伐“铁军”张发奎，在河南南部对阵，战况惨烈。此後数十年中，唐先生分别与张发奎、张学良见面，谈及此役。战时，奉军曾以重炮排轰北伐军。学良忆及炮轰，“眉飞色舞”，发奎则云：“他们那时简直不敢开炮！”为什么呢？云：“那时我们革命军士气最旺。我们在前线，敌方哪个炮声最隆、机枪最密，哪个地方就是我们冲锋的对象，所以他们不敢开炮”。此役结局为“铁军”胜利，奉军败退，据说，当发奎乘胜攻入学良的司令部，在办公桌上发现一封信，上书“留交张发奎将军”，为学良亲笔，信中说：英雄识英雄。是好汉，将来抗日战场上再见。唐先生就此向当事人求证，发奎云，确有此信，吾“莞尔纳之”。学良也证实有此“留函”。及至五十年代中，“张发奎数访台湾，曾违禁约访幽居中之张少帅。二人互道仰慕之忱。杯酒联欢，一笑泯恩仇。当年驻马店一带的数万冤魂就算是白死了”《从北京政变到皇姑屯期间的奉张父子》。试问，如此笔墨，用以叙史，即无史观，何伤？况有锦上添花的“转型”说，有悲天悯人的道德感，能不令读者身临其境，感同身受？
尚矣。唐先生千古。
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