写在状纸边上·裁军

2008年5月1日 | 分类: 未分类 | 标签:

话说见过太后，狄公与庞青雲在朝房闲话，小作寒暄，狄公话锋一转，说：“叛乱虽平，可地方督抚个个手握重兵。庞大人，这，太后不放心啊！” 青雲答曰：“山字营带头裁军”。按，俗传曾国藩克复南京，位高权重，以致谣诼日兴，不安于位，他赶紧大规模裁军，以明心迹。窃谓，此皆野老之谈，诛心之论，不足取信。国藩在主观上想不想造反，在客观上能不能造反，答案很明确：看不出，不可能。鄙人尝撰文专论此事，今不赘言。倒是当日裁军的实际情势，不妨略作说明。
同治三年六月十六日，湘军克南京。七月二十日，国藩即奏请裁军。为什么裁军？第一个原因是省钱。当时湘军总数约十二万人，以每兵月银四两计，则全军每月需饷四十八万两，加上营哨官与统领的办公费及他项杂费又需十万馀两。以年计，则需七百馀万方能维持湘军开销。若统计包括湘军在内的全国兵饷，则年需二千馀万两，而当时政府各项收入合计只有四千馀万，军费支出竟占去一半以上。因此，国藩说：“（军队）所吸者皆斯民之脂膏，所损者皆国家之元气”；确是实话。再说：“裁一勇即节一勇之糜费，亦即销无穷之後患”；也是实情。
除了省钱，还有一个原因，是防止士兵肇乱。湘军不是经制军队，士兵都是“临时工”，南京一破，全军“失业”。老实的，回家继续务农；不老实的，则不甘心，极有可能趁着大乱虽靖而风波未息之时，捞一笔再走，或者要求加薪，或者劫掠百姓，甚者起兵造反。因此，距攻克南京才过了一个月，国藩即迅筹裁军，便是尽量不让士兵有充足时间进行“串谋”，用他的话说，这正是“善聚不如善散、善始不如善终之道”。确实，缴了械，分了众，一声令下，即刻由武装部队“护送”回乡，那些想闹事的士兵根本没有机会造反。
当时主政者是西太后与恭亲王，一个寡妇，一个纨绔，虽皆智商超群、情商过人，毕竟不谙军事，认为在捻军仍未消灭的情况下，骤然裁撤几万人，未敢确信这些人会老老实实回家去。以此，特地向国藩建议，“此辈久在戎行，不能省事，必至随处啸聚为乱”，“不若先汰老弱”，“俟江（西）、楚（湖北）一律肃清，再议裁撤”。如此说话，反倒辜负了国藩的苦心，因此国藩婉拒，云，湘勇多为农民，“有业者多，无根者少，但使欠饷有着，当可安静回籍，不致别生枝节”；执意请求迅速裁军，最终，朝廷同意了他的方案。
省钱与杜乱，是裁军的直接原因，另有一个间接原因，则是淮军代兴，足以填补湘军撤後的国防空缺。国藩云，“楚军出征过久，官秩日高，渐成强弩之末”，“必宜多撤”，而“淮勇锐气方盛”，则“不可轻撤”。有前辈学者将这段话解释为湘军营中盛行哥老会，以致国藩无力控制，遂托辞淮军後劲以为掩饰。其实，成军以来，湘军中即有“会党”（《营制》严禁“会党”、“结拜”即可证明），国藩未尝不知；他既然带了十年兵，怎么控制军中的“会党”，必有心得——事实也证明哥老会在裁军後虽有发动，究非大患。何况，秦汉以来中国，所谓“封建会道门”起事，哪朝哪代没有呢？只要没搞出黄巾军、白莲教的大场面，都算正常。
而且，国藩裁军，计之已熟，至迟在同治元年，他在日记书信中就提到这个计划。设身处地为他想一想，很正常：修齐治平四门功课，已经循序操演了一遍，及至垂垂老矣，在己，功成名就，在人，既有“接班人”李鸿章又有“竞争者”左宗棠，则军国大事委诸二人可矣，何必拼上老命呢？今人看那个时代，但觉“诸夷环伺，间不容髮”，而自国藩视之，身际中兴，仔肩可卸，正是偃武修文的好时候，此时不裁军，更待何时？

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